"Stay the course," "Full speed ahead!"

"Stay the course," "Full speed ahead!"

Sharon Melder – Research Intelligence Unit www.riunit.com

Ripple Effect

In a matter of weeks, the world has become a much more dangerous place, a truth that will not ripple out to the edge of the pond or be felt by those that habitat 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, not for the moment at least. Unsighted to what may be stirring in the pipeline Washington in all probability by now has moved on to the next chapter in its plan, to further expand the devastation it has successfully rooted in the Middle East.

The aircraft carrier Eisenhower, accompanied by the guided-missile cruiser USS Anzio, guided-missile destroyer USS Ramage, guided-missile destroyer USS Mason and the fast-attack submarine USS Newport is as we go about our daily rituals, making its way to the Straits of Hormuz off the shores of Iran. The ships will be in place to strike Iran if required by the end of the month. While the motive behind the move may possibly be as simple as President Bush calling a bluff or a manoeuvre in order to demonstrate the long arm of American power, arriving at these two assumptions blindly might prove to be naïve for they seems highly unlikely.

The fleet according to Naval Intelligence sources who leaked news of the deployments to the press is said to arrive in the Persian Gulf sometime around October 21. Time magazine and The National newspaper reported last week that a "prepare to deploy order" (PTDO) was issued by the US Navy to the crews of an Aegis-class cruiser, two minesweepers and two mine-hunting ships as well as the Eisenhower Strike Group, which was based in Norfolk, Virginia. They had received instructions to be prepared to set sail on the 1st of October 2006.

Such an attack on Iran will only assist to aggravate an already ominous situation; while at the same time it will without a doubt ignite the Middle East. If attacked, we the rest of the world will without a doubt lose out on Iranian oil, tied with what would be retaliation by Iran, could most likely launch missile attacks on oil tankers located in the Persian Gulf, this in turn would send oil prices soaring to well over $100 a barrel. The effect such actions would have on the domestic and world economy will be devastating to say the least, perhaps even activating a huge, global depression. It is highly likely in such a situation the Shiite communities in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Bahrain, Pakistan and Turkey will in all probability turn in a frenzy of anger on the United States and their ever deteriorating allies. According to Chris Hedges, a former Middle Ease Euro Chief for the New York Time, the world would experience a combination of increased terrorist attacks, including on American soil, and the widespread sabotage of oil production in the Gulf. The ever increasing devastation in Iraq, as bad as it appears now will seem to take second fiddle in comparison. When and if Shiites and Sunnis, for the first time, unite against their foreign occupiers.

In a meeting last week, representatives from the five UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany agreed to discuss further sanctions against Teheran after it refused to pay attention to a new deadline in order to halt the enrichment of uranium. The Security Council has already imposed limited sanctions on North Korea after it test-fired long range missiles in July. While in response to the UN Security Council actions Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad guaranteed to impose retaliatory sanctions on world powers if Iran is penalised by the UN Security Council over its nuclear programme, its state media reported.

Mushroom Clouds

North Korea released a statement last week for the withdrawal of US forces stationed in South Korea, a day after it announced it would carry out a nuclear test. Some 29,000 US troops are currently stationed in the South to assist South Korean soldiers face up to North Korea's 1.2 million-strong army. Kim having honored his word carried out a nuclear test on Monday in Gilju, Hamgyong province the size of the bomb still remains uncertain, with estimates varying from 550 tons of destructive power to as much as 15 kilotons. The “little boy” nuclear bomb of 1945 which was dropped on Hiroshima by the US was 12.5-15 kilotons.

American Intelligence agencies now believe that North Korea has enough fissile material for between two to eight nuclear warheads and they are speeding ahead with the development of the necessary delivery systems. Although the present explosive crisis which has sprung up with North Korea was certainly an avoidable one. The Bush administration has had ample opportunity to find a peaceful resolution to the Korean standoff, for anyone with even the least amount of diplomatic skills and a basic understanding of human psychology could have prevented this episode. However Bush and Co. only succeeded in pushing Kim Jong-Il to build North Korea’s first nuclear bomb having persisted for six years to its rigid policies.

North Korea’s demands go back to the original 1994 “Framework Agreement” in which Bill Clinton promised to provide food, fuel and two light-water reactors in exchange for North Korea’s abandoning its nuclear weapons programs. The North agreed to these terms, but the United States has never honoured its obligations.
Now, Kim can just add a few finishing touches to his ballistic-missile delivery system, and he’ll have half of the United States in his gun-sight with a flick of a switch.

The United States is clearly not satisfied with the effect China seems to be setting out in twisting the arm of North Korea in order to abandon its nuclear weapons programs. China which is one of North Korea’s few remaining allies wants stability to remain in the Korean peninsula, by contrast to having an international crisis right on its doorstep. Such a crisis would send a flood of refugees over the border into China – a situation Beijing would dearly wish to avoid at all costs. Therefore despite international pressure Chain has refrained from using what influence it does boast and continues to provide aid, preferring to work through multi-national institutions the BBC reports. While at the same time Beijing condemned the tests conducted on Monday and approved a UN Security Council resolution imposing weapons-related sanctions on North Korea.

Blind Faith

Another war in the Middle-East would only unleash an apocalyptic scenario in the region and would most likely take shape by the latter part of the Bush administration, claiming to be anointed by God to reshape the world, especially the Middle East, defined three states at the start of his reign as “the Axis of Evil.” They were Iraq, now occupied somewhat; North Korea, which, because it has nuclear weapons, is untouchable; and Iran.

President Bush displays similarities to men like Elliott Abrams, who helped orchestrate the disastrous and illegal contra war in Nicaragua, a well-known figure from the Reagan era who was convicted, and later pardoned, on charges related to the Iran-Contra scandal and who now handles the Middle East for the National Security Council. He knew nothing about Central America. His knowledge on the Middle East follows suit.

Iran’s intentions to acquire nuclear weapons can not be disputed nor does it minimize the danger should it acquire them in the estimated five to ten years. However, to put things in perspective, Pakistan, India and Israel all refused to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and developed nuclear weapons programs in secret. Israel is reported to now have an estimated 400 to 600 nuclear weapons. The word “Dimona,” the name of the city where the nuclear facilities are located in Israel, is shorthand in the Muslim world for the deadly Israeli threat to Muslims’ existence.

Those in Washington who support this so called war on terrorism, know as little about the limitations and chaos of war as they do about the Middle East, while continuing to believe they can take out satellite targeted sites inside Iran in order to wipe out nuclear production as well as attempting to cripple the 850,000-man Iranian army.

The disaster in southern Lebanon has taught Washington and its ideologues very little is seems, in which the mighty Israeli air campaign not only failed to break Hezbollah but on the contrary succeed in uniting most Lebanese behind the militant group. While the massive Israeli bombing of Lebanon further failed to rattle nervous of four million Lebanese. The outcome of what will happen when the US begins to knock down the door to a country of 70 million people is rather obvious although Washington unlike every other one of us fails to live in a reality-based universe. As retired General Wesley K. Clark and others have pointed out, once you begin an air campaign it is only a matter of time before you have to put troops on the ground or accept defeat, as the Israelis had to do in Lebanon.

Copyrights Reserved (2006). Prepared exclusively for the Business Standard.