SECURITY: Al Qaeda, Taleban and the Military in Pakistan



It is not easy to make clear sense of currents, cross currents and events spiraling around Pakistan and Afghanistan with so many forces acting from inside and outside. Gajendra Singh gives commentary on this important security issue.


Who said what?


“The Pakistani government is basically abdicating to the Taliban and the extremists," US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton told the US Congress. Richard Holbrooke, Barack Obama's special representative, admitted last week in an interview that more attention was now focused on Pakistan than on the war in Afghanistan


"What is most important to the history of the world? The Taliban or the collapse of the Soviet empire? Some stirred-up Moslems or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?"." Nonsense--" added Brzezinski when asked in 1997 "If Islamic fundamentalism represents a world menace today." Brzezinski was President Jimmy Carter's National Security Adviser.


"The United States has supported radical Islamic activism over the past six decades, sometimes overtly, sometimes covertly," and is thus "partly to blame for the emergence of Islamic terrorism as a world-wide phenomenon." Robert Drefuss



“The limits of American military power have been laid bare in the killing fields of Iraq; Iran has been transformed into the pre-eminent regional power; --- a resurgent Taliban is leading an increasingly effective guerrilla war in Afghanistan; and far from crushing terror networks, the US and its allies have spread them to Pakistan--- Pakistan is being ripped apart by the fallout from the Afghan occupation. If the US escalates, the impact will be devastating-- The country now shows every sign of slipping out of the control of its dysfunctional civilian government - and even the military that has held it together for 60 years, “ Seumas Milne in The Guardian 5 March,2009.


Ahmed Rashid writes in his book ‘Descent into Chaos ;” Afghanistan is once again staring down the abyss of state collapse, despite billions of dollars in aid, forty-five thousand Western troops, and the deaths of thousands of people. The Taliban have made a dramatic comeback.... The international community had an extended window of opportunity for several years to help the Afghan people—they failed to take advantage of it.


“ Pakistan...has undergone a slower but equally bloody meltdown.... In 2007 there were 56 suicide bombings in Pakistan that killed 640 people, compared to just 6 bombings in the previous year....

In 2008, American power lies shattered.... US credibility lies in ruins.... Ultimately the strategies of the Bush administration have created a far bigger crisis in South and Central Asia than existed before 9/11.”

"Everyone and his dog knows this is not a military trained for counterinsurgency," said Mosharraf Zaidi, a political analyst. "People have been waiting for Pakistan's 9/11 moment," Zaidi added. "But this isn't America." "You can't possibly think the rest of the country, particularly the urban areas, is going to fall like a house of cards," Zaidi said. "Ultimately I think the country will overcome this. But it's going to get worse first." ( He certainly is an optimist !)


Religion and conflict

The grip of conservative Islamism on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is the legacy not just of George Bush, of course, but decades of US meddling in the region, and its sponsorship of the anti-Soviet mujahedeen in the 1980s in particular. -- a byproduct of the systematically counter-productive nature of western policy across the wider region since 2001. After seven years of lawless invasion and occupation, the war on terror is everywhere in ruins.


Maleeha Lodhi, a former senior Pakistan diplomat in London and Washington, said the pact (with Taleban in Swat) was a disaster in both local security and human rights angle with serious implications "First and foremost it represents a retreat from Jinnah's Pakistan," referring to the country's founder, Muhammad Ali Jinnah. "It is the very antithesis of [his] visions and ideals, the core of which were a modern, unified Muslim state, not one fragmented along obscurantist and sectarian lines." The deal, Lodhi added betrayed the people of Swat and could mark a turning point in Pakistan's struggle against extremism. "Rattled by more aggressive actions by militants, the political and security establishments caved in to the challenge ... The deal signaled weakness and bankruptcy on the part of the ruling elite that has chosen appeasement," she concluded.



A more surprising statement came from Maulana Fazlur Rahman, the leader of the pro-Taliban Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam party, who warned the national assembly: "If Taliban continue to move at this pace they will soon be knocking at the doors of Islamabad." (It is similar to the competition for power among various shades of extremist Sikh and Akali groups in Indian Punjab in 1980s





Regional connections

According to reports Jihadis once associated with the Harkat-e-Jihad-i-Islami and the Lashkar-e-Taiba - groups with strong roots to terror acts in Kashmir after the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, stayed neutral, only joining the Taliban's fight against foreign forces in Afghanistan in 2004, helping with training and logistics. During the Pakistani military's operations in the tribal areas over the past few years, they kept out of the fight. In the current critical phase of the "war on terror", for the first time these militants are fully operational and are turning their attention to operations inside Pakistan. The top military brains at General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, the garrison city twinned with the capital Islamabad, are acutely aware of what these highly trained and dedicated militants are capable of: they cut their teeth in operations inside India and in Kashmir.

The point to be noted is that there appeared to be a tacit agreement that the US (and UK) would keep the Kashmir pot boiling. Remember the recent uncouth statement in India by British Foreign Secretary David Miliband that to avoid terrorist attacks like 26/11 India must resolve the Kashmir issue. Such regular statements provide oxygen to terrorists’ cause and encourage them .It is as if India stated that terror attacks in north Ireland would cease if London gave in to the demands of Irish Republican Army.

In return groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba have kept generally silent about the atrocities in Occupied Palestine and genocide in Gaza by Israelis with full US support and illegal invasion and brutal occupation of Iraq in which over a million Iraqis have died. So much for the solidarity between members of Islamic Ummah of Palestine,Iraq and disgruntled Kashmir elements being trained, equipped and financed by Pakistan for its own ends, when it is quite clear that Islamabad has no intention of agreeing to an independent Kashmir. Why go far? Just look at the terrible conditions in Pak occupied Kashmir ruled from the interior ministry of Pakistan.

Kashmiris are being exploited like the Kurds of Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria in history by neighboring states and outside powers like Britain, Russia and now USA.




Would Pakistan succeed in destroying the Talebans!



A conglomerate of various militias, free booters, religious fanatics, nationalists and tribal chieftains classified as Al Qaeda, Talebans, Pakistani Talebans etc are somewhat like the Janissaries of the Ottoman empire, their most effective fighting force which terrorized European Christians and helped extend the Ottoman empire into Europe. But soon instead of terrorizing the enemies of the Ottomans, they threatened the Sultans. Finally the Janissaries had to be destroyed. Would Pakistan be able to do the same?


Throughout the Cold War, the so-called democracy in Pakistan was basically a Western media myth to put its ally on a par with India. Utterances by Pakistan prime ministers against India made good copy in Western media. Barring perhaps Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (1972-77, after the military had been totally discredited in 1971 following the liberation of Bangladesh, the Pakistan armed forces have been de jure or de facto rulers of the country. In the 11 years between General Zia's death in 1988 and Musharraf's takeover, Benazir Bhutto and Sharif were eased in and out of power whenever they tried to interfere with the military's autonomy, or their control of nuclear arms, or the policy on Kashmir and foreign affairs. Constantly squabbling the politicians nevertheless amassed huge fortunes by corrupt means.


The future of Pak Afghanistan depends on how Afghanistan shapes up which has been divided since 1980s. The kingdom was created in the 19th century at the end of the Great Game as a buffer to keep the Russian and British empires from getting onto each others corns. In spite of many attempts, the British had failed to subdue the Afghan tribes and had got a bloody nose in the bargain.

Since then the two empires, the British in South Asia and the Russian/Soviet in central Asia have disappeared and divided. Thus the raison d’etre of the Kingdom remaining united has disappeared. The break up of Afghanistan composed of warring Pushtuns, Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras and others would create pressures on the already eroded Durand line, whose so called British enforced legality ended in 1993. Dominated by Punjabi speaking elite with leavening of Pushtuns, Pakistan has remained feudal in social makeup and has failed to create even a territory based national identity. The most dangerous possibility is a stand off and war between the Jihadists and the Military with Punjabi- Pathan mix with the latter’s unity being unraveled, unraveling the state itself.

West may not mind the break up of Afghanistan and even of Pakistan if the new states are beholden to it and help neutralize the Chinese objectives of direct land access from west China via Pakistan to the Gulf. This explains Chinese investments in Baluchistan and its Gwadar port, next door to the Gulf of Hormuz, the Middle East energy exit point. However the likely economic collapse of UK and USA weakens their hand. Russia, China, Iran, Saudi Arabia and India would play more important role than the 2002 agreement in shaping what happens in Afghanistan. But finally it is the people of the lands who would be the deciders.

What happens in Afghanistan and Pakistan will have serious ramifications for India too. The current Indian dispensation remains too beholden to Washington and has not kept up with Moscow and annoyed Tehran. At the moment the political elite is engrossed in the election exercise to renew its license to go back to its selfish ways. The public remains glued to Indian Premier League telecasts from South Africa where it is being played since the League and the elections would have strained the security setup in India, so brutally exposed of its ineffectiveness by the 26 /11 rape of Mumbai.

K Gajendra Singh, Indian ambassador (retired), served as ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan from August 1992 to April 1996. Prior to that, he served terms as ambassador to Jordan, Romania and Senegal. He is currently chairman of the Foundation for Indo-Turkic Studies.

Copyrights Rerserved RIU(2009)