GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT: Another Wake-up Call!

Compiled by Roshan Madawela

The Fourth Global Environment Outlook ( GEO-4) compiled and published by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) includes the contributions of 390 experts who have contributed studies, data and research. The conclusion reached in the report is an eye-opener. “Humanity is changing the earth’s climate so fast and devouring resources so voraciously that it is poised to bequeath a ravaged planet to future generations’

An unfolding crisis

This most comprehensive publication cataloguing climate change since the Brundtland Report in 1987 comes in the wake of a year that has up to now been dominated by climate change. The latest in a series of disasters was the wild-fires in the US state of California. The past weeks have witnessed the destruction of some 1,500 homes and burned down 674 square miles across five-counties from Ventura to Mexico and the property damage is estimated to have topped $1 billion in San Diego County alone.

Whilst the direct death-toll from this year’s fire is estimated at only one as compared with 22 in a fire of similar magnitude in 2003, the figure is expected to rise further. Moreover, several persons have died as a result of the massive evacuation of some half a million persons. The long-term implications should also give rise for serious concern. For instance, the officials from the Southern California water wholesalers have claimed that supplies to the regions agricultural customers will be cut by a third next year whilst rates hikes are also on the cards.

One unique feature of the current fires that distinguish it from other disasters such as hurricane Katrina, where the frontline victims were the poor, is that the rich have been disproportionately affected. The hardest hit areas this time around have been areas with up-market homes. All the more reason perhaps, for policy-makers to take note of the latest UN report calling on them to ‘propel the environment to the core of decision-making’ in order to address an unfolding crisis. Failure to do so would undoubtedly jeopardize our future generations of all people. The impact on the US, the worlds’ leading polluter and a climate treaty offender and its less guilty climate offenders would not be easily disentangled.
For example, Chile’s 16 million population adds little to the green-house gas effect but is currently paying the price. According to sources, the country’s glaciers are vanishing whilst mudslides become common place and spring-time snow is replaced by tepid rains. Mc Clatch reports that last May, an entire lake in southern Chile disappeared almost overnight as the Tempano Glacier that had acted as a dam melted and destabilized. These rapid transformations are spurring the country’s scientists to attempt to solve the puzzle of the impact over the coming years. With over half of the 120 glaciers under observation reported to be shrinking, with many vanishing at twice the rate of last year, scientists will have to work over-time to find the answers.

However, the Chilean researchers are not alone as they scramble for solutions. Neighboring Argentina is facing drought on its side of the Andes due to falling rain levels whilst shrinking glaciers pose dangers to water supplies in Bolivia. They all agree that an era that they had become accustomed to in terms of their geo-physical environment is now over and the future is one of uncertainty.
UNEP’s Executive Director is quoted to have said that "there have been enough wake-up calls since Brundtland. I sincerely hope GEO-4 is the final one", adding that "the systematic destruction of the Earth's natural and nature-based resources has reached a point where the economic viability of economies is being challenged -- and where the bill we hand on to our children may prove impossible to pay" (AFP).

The report claims that the earth has experienced five mass extinctions in 450 million years, the latest of which occurred 65 million years ago. ‘A sixth major extinction is under way, this time caused by human behavior’. Whilst the past two decades have offered ample opportunity for initiating desperately needed change, woefully little has been done. Consequently, the climate is changing faster than at any time in the past 500,000 years.
The report claims that the global average temperatures rose by 0.74 degrees Celsius (1.33 Fahrenheit) over the past century and are forecast to rise by 1.8 to four C (3.24-7.2 F) by 2100, it said, citing estimates issued this year by the 2007 Nobel Peace co-laureates, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The report also addresses the issues arising out of a rise in the global population. The current total of six billion human earthlings is expected to swell to and peak at 9.7 billion by 2050. Thus, meeting the nutritional and survival needs of the people will throw-up new challenges that need to be factored-in now. Land degradation and deforestation in Africa is estimated to have reduced production of food by 12 per cent since 1981. Fish consumption is said to have tripled over the past 40 years whilst the catches have stagnated or declined. The report also claims that over 30 per cent of amphibians, 23 per cent of mammals and 12 per cent of birds are currently under threat while many other vertebrates may not even have been assessed.

Not seeking to paint a "dark and gloomy scenario", UNEP took note of some success in the areas of combating ozone loss and chemical air pollution. However, it warned that in some cases, progress achieved in pollution reduction in the developed world was at the expense of the developing world where the industrial externalities and its impacts had been effectively exported or outsourced.

The future scenario

Other commentators express similar views on the urgent need for a change in policy orientation and direction. Goodchild takes a perspective on oil depletion in order to consider the economic viability of agriculture facing the next generation, connecting the impact of population increase and food supplies to the issues facing farming.

As oil has been rising at a an average rate of some 18 per cent over the past twenty five years and at a much more rapid rate in recent years due to wars, the future price of oil is expected to reach $140 per gallon in 2030 ( in the US). If at some point the cost of manual labor drops below the cost of fuel, the farmer will find it worth his while to switch away from mechanization.
In a bizarre yet not unimaginable scenario, Goodchild considers that impact of future agriculture in the absence of motorized vehicles and chemical fertilizer. Thus, questions of what should be grown, where and how much is needed to fulfill the needs of the population will be the key issues facing future producers.

Sans mechanization, it is estimated that manual labor can produce enough maize for four people out of one hectare. Thus, countries with a population density greater than the required land ratio will face difficulties. Currently, the world has a population to arable land ratio of 3:1. However, only one third of the world’s countries pass the required ratio. The Arabian Peninsula, Much of East Asia and even the UK have a higher ratio. Moreover, agriculture would be a non-starter in many of these geo-graphic regions that have a traditionally meat eating diet due to environmental factors.

However, despite flaws in such forecasts of the future, the message of the UNEP and other independent researchers is clear. "The only way to address these harder problems requires moving the environment from the periphery to the core of decision-making: environment for development, not development to the detriment of environment." GEO-4 also studies the possible scenarios that might result from different approaches adopted up to 2050 based on "Markets First", "Policy First", "Security First" and "Sustainability First". These studies should be serve as a wake-up call for the worlds leaders as well as raise the awareness and response of the people.

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